Kenya is preparing for possible health risks linked to the anticipated 2026/2027 El Niño season, with forecasts indicating that parts of eastern Africa could receive more rainfall than usual between October and December.
Strong El Niño conditions, together with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, are usually linked to increased rainfall in eastern Africa. This means countries including Somalia, eastern and southern Ethiopia, northern Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi are likely to experience wetter-than-normal conditions. Similar conditions in 2019 and 1997 were followed by widespread and severe flooding across the region, with significant impacts on communities.
For Kenya, the forecast comes after widespread flooding during the March-May 2026 long rains. By 3 May, flooding had affected 27 counties, claimed 122 lives and affected 42,259 people. Roads, bridges, water systems and power infrastructure were damaged, disrupting access to essential services and increasing the risk of water-borne diseases.
Flooding can contaminate drinking-water sources and sanitation systems, increasing the risk of cholera, typhoid, dysentery, hepatitis A and other diarrhoeal diseases. It can also make it harder for people to reach health facilities, access medicines and continue routine health services.
The Ministry of Health has activated a Health Sector El Niño Contingency Plan to guide preparedness and response to potential health risks associated with heavy rainfall and flooding. The plan brings together national and county governments, emergency agencies, humanitarian organisations and development partners.
WHO is working closely with the Ministry of Health and the Kenya National Public Health Institute, providing technical support as preparedness planning progresses.
“The experience of the long rains earlier this year provides important lessons for preparing health services and communities before the next rainy season,” said Dr. Neema Rusibamayila Kimambo, WHO Representative to Kenya.
Preparedness planning is considering areas including disease surveillance and early warning, laboratory and response capacity, safe water, sanitation and hygiene, risk communication and continuity of essential health services.
As Kenya approaches the October-December rainy season, ongoing preparedness and risk assessment will help health authorities identify potential health impacts and inform actions to strengthen readiness for possible flooding and other weather-related health risks.
Distributed by APO Group on behalf of WHO Regional Office for Africa.
