New Delhi, May 1 (SocialNews.XYZ) In her 15 years of uninterrupted rule, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is now facing a formidable challenge from a resurgent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the state where she is being largely projected as having lost the initial political edge.
As per the average of nine major exit polls, the 2026 West Bengal Assembly election paints a picture of a highly personalised and close contest between the BJP and the incumbent Trinamool Congress.
The Assembly has 294 seats, so a simple majority would mean 148.
Most of the nine exit polls cluster around this threshold, with the BJP predicted to be poised for a breakthrough, even if close.
The contest seems largely concentrated in the south of the state, where the ruling party used to sweep the seven districts with 142 seats that went to polls in the second phase this time.
In the north, the BJP has been maintaining its lead through Parliamentary and Assembly polls, especially since its phenomenal surge in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, adding 16 of West Bengal’s 42 constituencies to its previous kitty of just two.
Historically, the Darjeeling mountains and the industrial belt in and around Asansol have largely supported the BJP.
The party has also successfully wooed a part of the Matua community. A socio-religious group, Matua roots can be traced back to the Namasudra movement led by Harichand Thakur in the 19th century. Originally formed to challenge caste-based discrimination and promote social equality, the Matuas became a significant voice for marginalised Hindus, particularly those who migrated from then East Pakistan (later Bangladesh) during the Partition.
In West Bengal, they are concentrated in districts like North 24 Parganas and Nadia, where their numbers make them a decisive electoral bloc.
Meanwhile, the BJP also did well in the tribal areas, particularly to the west of the state, hoisting the saffron flag across large tracts of the largely forested lands in these parts bordering Bihar, Jharkhand, and Odisha.
The surge continued in the 2021 Assembly election with the BJP emerging as the principal Opposition party after cornering 77 seats.
Significant players, like erstwhile rulers Congress and Left Front, withered through this time to finally attain zero representation in the Assembly.
Many had then written off Mamata Banerjee, including several pollsters, who predicted a BJP Chief Minister in the state for the first time. But she triumphed, consolidating her party’s presence in the Assembly. In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, however, the BJP tally dropped to 12, much to the relief of the Trinamool.
For the ruling party, support came overwhelmingly from south Bengal – especially the 142 seats that went to polls in the second phase of polls this time – which saw her have the last laugh. This region will again weigh significantly on the final mandate to be announced on May 4.
Despite several anti-incumbency issues, like women’s safety, jobs, nepotism, etc., there has been no concerted wave for the BJP to ride on.
Mamata Banerjee stormed the Left bastion in 2011, riding on the emotive wave of farmland acquisition for industrialisation. Between 2006 and 2011, the Trinamool added more than 150 seats to its kitty, drastically marginalising the communists. This time, the party supremo has aggressively pitched against the Election Commission’s Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls, and Bengali pride.
Once again, she has brought emotive issues to the fore.
Yet, the BJP can count on two aspects. One, that there has been a large number of voters who refrained from speaking their mind in a state known for being politically committed and volatile. It can be seen as maintaining silence for the time being, fearing reprisals, and also as a commitment to predetermined political or emotional support. Two, a significant number of migrants have returned from various parts of the country to exercise their franchise this time. This has been defined in several ways, largely according to political belief.
It is assumed that after the high-decibel SIR war of attrition, some feared deletion of their names from the voters’ list, while others considered it their duty to stand beside either the incumbent government or the challenger in this year’s contest.
Source: IANS
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