After RS jolt, uncertainty deepens over AAP’s Gujarat prospects

Gandhinagar, April 25 (SocialNews.XYZ) The defection of seven Rajya Sabha members from the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has intensified scrutiny of party's organisational strength in Gujarat, with rivals and dissenting voices questioning its claim of emerging as a 'third political force' in a state traditionally dominated by bipolar politics.

The MPs, including Sandeep Pathak and Raghav Chadha, joined the BJP on Friday, weakening AAP’s presence in the Upper House and dealing a setback to its national leadership.

Pathak’s exit is being viewed as particularly significant for Gujarat, where he served as the party’s state in-charge and played a central role in building its organisational structure, overseeing candidate selection and grassroots expansion during the 2022 Assembly elections.

AAP secured around 14 per cent of the vote in the 2022 elections and won five seats -- Gopal Italia (Visavadar, later elected in a bypoll), Umesh Makwana (Botad), Hemant Khava (Jamjodhpur), Bhupat Bhayani (Visavadar, currently with the BJP) and Chaitar Vasava (Dediapada) -- marking its first legislative foothold in the state.

However, subsequent resignations and internal dissent have weakened cohesion, and its presence remains limited in the 182-member Assembly dominated by the BJP.

The developments come ahead of the local self-government elections on April 26, which cover multiple tiers including municipal corporations, municipalities and panchayats, with nearly 10,000 seats at stake.

In February this year, former AAP Gujarat farmer cell president Raju Karpada resigned from the party and joined the BJP, stating he wanted to “work more effectively for the welfare of farmers”.

Botad MLA Umesh Makwana, who was suspended from AAP last year for "anti-party activities", linked the Rajya Sabha defections to what he described as a broader organisational decline.

“Following yesterday’s development where seven Rajya Sabha MPs joined the BJP, AAP will be finished in Punjab as well as in Gujarat and Goa,” he told IANS.

On the party’s future in Gujarat, he added, “Regarding Gujarat, the party will be finished within the next couple of months.”

He also predicted further defections, claiming that a prominent “poster boy” within the party would leave along with a significant number of leaders to join the BJP, adding that “the same senior figure (referring to Italia) would also take members of the Leuva-Patidar community with him”.

Alleging internal sabotage, Makwana said, “Within the state leadership, BJP’s men are in control and are sidelining effective leaders. They too will soon join the BJP.”

He added, “The party does not get destroyed itself but some people within the party destroy the organisation. AAP does not have the skill of damage control.”

Targeting the leadership of Arvind Kejriwal, he said, “Arvind Kejriwal does not have the skill of identifying the individuals -- who’s bad, who’s good within the party. Some people are still in the party who are close to Kejriwal but are doing the work of BJP.”

He further said: “Senior-most leaders will leave in the coming months,” and rejected claims of electoral gains, stating, “Nothing like BJP will get defeated majorly in local body elections as they claim will happen.”

On organisational readiness, Makwana said: “AAP could not even field 3,000 candidates for nearly 10,000 seats for local body elections. Many people shifted, withdrew the forms. AAP does not have the candidates here. How will they form the government?”

Referring to the suspension of AAP’s social media accounts, he said, “Nothing happens without any proof. It’s all legally taken actions. The broom needs to be used at home first and kick those people who are against the party.”

Makwana also said: “My ideology still lies with AAP but I was suspended by the ‘BJP men’ inside the party. Those three-four people are brainwashing Arvind Kejriwal.”

He added: “Arvind Kejriwal and others are thinking that this poster boy is working for the party but he’s working to destroy the party,” reiterating that the leader would join the BJP before the 2027 Assembly elections.

The BJP also dismissed AAP’s claim of a three-cornered contest.

Speaking to IANS, Savarkundla MLA Mahesh Kaswala said: “Two-party politics is present in Gujarat. There’s no third front in the state and people have never accepted any such attempt.”

He further added, “There has always been BJP and Congress as two parties for decades. Even in the state legislative assembly there are five AAP MLAs, but no one is in their mind.”

Congress leaders echoed similar views. Leader of Congress Legislative Party and MLA Tushar Chaudhary said: “In the coming local self-government elections, AAP has 3,000 candidates fighting... which is almost 30 per cent of nearly 10,000 seats. After this, AAP is going to decline immensely and will have no future at all. The party’s existence will be diminished in Gujarat.”

Congress spokesperson Dr. Manish Doshi said, “Kejriwal and his entire team used to say ‘India Against Corruption’ — now it’s proven empty. Most members of his team were involved in corruption.”

He added, “He built Sheesh Mahal and used government institutions for his PR just like BJP. There is no difference between Modi government and Kejriwal government.”

Doshi further said, “AAP is the B-team of BJP. Raghav Chadha and others switched to BJP show that our statement and judgement was correct about AAP.”

Speaking to IANS about the party’s prospects in Gujarat, he said, “There are hardly two or three people left in the party in the state. Senior leaders are joining the BJP here and strengthening it, while Arjun Rathwa, a professor from Chhota Udepur district, has left AAP and joined Congress. Many others have also exited the party to join us here.”

Responding to the criticism, AAP state general secretary Sagar Rabari said, “For the last 32 years, BJP is in power. Congress was in opposition. In 2022 Assembly elections, we received 14 per cent votes and five MLAs were elected.”

“BJP is working to save their power. In the coming days, we will raise people’s issues strongly," he told IANS.

On recent exits, he said, “People will come and go, but the party will fight for people,” adding, "Regarding Sandeep Pathak’s exit, I believe it’s his personal decision. He will only tell what pressure he was under. He used to say things against the BJP with us.”

He maintained, “Every leader in our party is proven by ideological that it is anti-BJP.”

Despite AAP maintaining that Gujarat is witnessing a three-cornered contest, the combined impact of high-profile defections, internal dissent and mounting criticism has raised questions over its organisational durability.

With local body elections scheduled on Sunday (April 26) and further exits being predicted, the party faces a critical test of whether it can sustain its political relevance in the state.

Source: IANS