GDP వృద్ధి రేటు ఇంకా పడిపోయింది, ఎంత కాలం కాదంటారు?||
The GDP growth figure of 4.7 percent in Q3 came mostly in line with expectations. The predictions were anything between 4.3 percent to 5 percent. The number at 4.7 percent is, in fact, lower than the revised figure of 5.1 percent in the second quarter. This wasn’t a surprise because most macro indicators showed that economic slowdown spilled over to the third quarter. Without the government part of the GDP, growth is even lower.
In Q3, non-government GDP actually grew by just 3.9%; economy is in ICU, needs an urgent booster shot
Representational image. Reuters.
The highlight of the December quarter GDP data is not just the GDP number alone, but the massive revisions of the past data. The extent of revisions is baffling. For the first quarter of 2018-2019, the GDP growth figure has been revised downwards to 7.1 percent from 8 percent. Similarly, in Q2, the growth has been revised to 6.2 percent from 7 percent. In Q3, the downward revision of the GDP growth is to 5.6 percent from 6.6 percent. On a lower base last year, the figures of the corresponding period in this year will show a higher growth.
In other words, without the sharp downward revision of FY19, the growth figure for the corresponding quarter this year would have looked even worse. While there is no evidence to say that there is a deliberate attempt to do this, the major revisions, as mentioned above, is baffling.
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GDP వృద్ధి రేటు ఇంకా పడిపోయింది, ఎంత కాలం కాదంటారు?|| The GDP growth figure of 4.7 percent in Q3 came mostly in line with expectations. The predictions were anything between 4.3 percent to 5 percent. The number at 4.7 percent is, in fact, lower than the revised figure of 5.1 percent in the second quarter. This wasn’t a surprise because most macro indicators showed that economic slowdown spilled over to the third quarter. Without the government part of the GDP, growth is even lower. In Q3, non-government GDP actually grew by just 3.9%; economy is in ICU, needs an urgent booster shot Representational image. Reuters. The highlight of the December quarter GDP data is not just the GDP number alone, but the massive revisions of the past data. The extent of revisions is baffling. For the first quarter of 2018-2019, the GDP growth figure has been revised downwards to 7.1 percent from 8 percent. Similarly, in Q2, the growth has been revised to 6.2 percent from 7 percent. In Q3, the downward revision of the GDP growth is to 5.6 percent from 6.6 percent. On a lower base last year, the figures of the corresponding period in this year will show a higher growth. In other words, without the sharp downward revision of FY19, the growth figure for the corresponding quarter this year would have looked even worse. While there is no evidence to say that there is a deliberate attempt to do this, the major revisions, as mentioned above, is baffling.