RBI may cut rate by 35-40 basis points

By Arun Kejriwal

NIFTY made a new lifetime high on Tuesday, November 26, and did so again two days later. Friday saw a sharp correction with the expected weak GDP numbers. The week ended with the BSESENSEX gaining 434.40 points or 1.08 per cent to close at 40,793.81 points, while the NIFTY gained 141.65 points or 1.19 per cent to close at 12,056.05 points.

 

The new lifetime highs made during the week were 41,163.79 points on BSESENSEX and 12,158.80 points on the NIFTY.

The broader market saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 1.23 per cent, 1.36 per cent and 1.38 per cent, respectively. The BSEMIDCAP was up 2.35 per cent while the BSESMALLCAP was up 1.55 per cent. The Indian Rupee lost 3 paisa, or 0.04 per cent, to close at Rs 71.74. Dow Jones gained 175.79 points, or 0.63 per cent, to close at 28,051.41 points.

November futures expired on a positive note, gaining 273.70 points or 2.30 per cent, to close at 12,151.15 points.

GDP for the second quarter (July-September) came in at 4.5 per cent. This is the slowest growth in about six years. While the number is poor, it is likely to be the bottom and should rebound in the coming two quarters. This slowdown would also put pressure on the RBI when they meet during December 3-5 for their bi-monthly monetary policy review meet. While a rate cut is expected and the street believes that 25 basis points would be cut from the present 5.15 per cent, I strongly believe that it could be more and may be in the region of 35-40 basis points.

The primary market issue from CSB Bank Ltd received excellent response and the issue was subscribed 86.93 times with the QIB portion subscribed 62.18 times, HNI 164.68 times and Retail portion subscribed 44.53 times. There were 10 lakh applications.

Ujjivan Small Finance Bank would be open for subscription from December 2-4. The company had done a pre-IPO of Rs 250 crore and is now tapping the capital markets with its primary offering of Rs 750 crore. This comprises of a shareholder reservation of Rs 75 crore for shareholders of Ujjivan Financial Services Ltd. The price band is Rs 35-37. The company has allotted 8.21 crore shares to 18 anchor investors comprising of 33 entities.

The company had begun its operations as a small finance bank a little over 2 years ago. It reported an earning per share (EPS) of Rs 1.20 for the year ended March 2019 against an EPS of Rs 0.05 for the year ended March 2018. The EPS for the six months ended September 2019 has doubled to Rs 1.21 compared to the previous 12 months. The NAV or book value of the share is at Rs 13.84 as on September 30, 2019.

The holding company Ujjivan Financial Services' shares gained Rs 35.35, or 11.65 per cent, to close at Rs 338.85 for the week. The share looks poised to receive huge response and would do well on listing. Grey market premium is more than 50 per cent of the issue price.

Yes Bank, is to receive capital infusion of $2 billion from a group of investors. The board would meet on December 10 to allot shares to a group of investors led by Erwin Singh Braich who would be investing $1.2 billion.

The Corporate Affairs Ministry has found no wrongdoing in the dealingS of the Indiabulls group. Post this announcement, shares of the flagship company Indiabulls Housing rose Rs 53.35, or 22.51 per cent, to close at Rs 290.35.

Bulls have had reasonable amount of success and have been able to post new lifetime highs on the benchmark indices. The broader markets have also begun to participate in the rally. The fact that they corrected in advance to the expected slowdown in GDP numbers indicates that this rally has legs.

Expect markets to continue their upward march in the coming week and weeks as well. There will always be bouts of selling and buying and it will not be a one-way movement. With the government taking measures to help ease the slowdown, expect things to move back to being on the track. Trade cautiously with a positive bias.

(Arun Kejriwal is the founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services. The views expressed are personal)

Source: IANS