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According to the EAC Quarterly Statistics Bulletin for April–June 2026, total trade increased by 37.0 percent from USD 38.2 billion in the same quarter of 2025. Exports rose by 41.3 percent to USD 26.3 billion, while imports grew by 32.9 percent to USD 26.0 billion. The region recorded a trade surplus of USD 0.3 billion, compared with a deficit of USD 945.3 million a year earlier.
African markets remained important to the region’s export growth. Exports to African countries increased by 44.3 percent to USD 7.2 billion, accounting for 27.5 percent of total EAC exports. Exports to the Southern African Development Community (SADC) grew by 50.8 percent to USD 5.1 billion, while those to the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) rose by 48.3 percent to USD 3.1 billion.
Trade within the Community also strengthened, with intra-EAC exports rising by 33.2 percent to USD 3.2 billion. Their share of total EAC exports, however, declined from 12.8 percent in the second quarter of 2025 to 12.1 percent in the same quarter of 2026. This reflected faster export growth to markets outside the Community, despite the increase in trade among Partner States.
China remained the EAC’s largest individual export destination and source of imports. Exports to China nearly doubled, rising from USD 5.7 billion in the second quarter of 2025 to USD 10.7 billion in the same quarter of 2026, largely driven by mineral commodities and other raw materials. Imports from China also increased from USD 4.7 billion to USD 7.1 billion. The United Arab Emirates and South Africa were also major export destinations, while India, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, the United States of America and Japan were other leading sources of imports.
The Bulletin notes that copper and precious metals accounted for 61.9 percent of total exports, up from 58.7 percent a year earlier, highlighting the region’s continued reliance on mineral export earnings. Coffee, tea and spices remained important agricultural exports. Petroleum products were the largest import category, alongside significant imports of machinery, transport equipment and industrial supplies.
Inflationary Pressures
The EAC Quarterly Statistics Bulletin notes that inflationary pressures eased across the quarter, with annual headline inflation in the EAC region, as measured by the EAC Harmonised Consumer Price Index (EAC-HCPI), declining from 11.1 percent in April to 10.7 percent in May and 7.8 percent in June 2026. The June rate was substantially below the 22.7 percent recorded a year earlier. On a month-on-month basis, the regional price index fell by 0.8 percent in June, following a 1.2 percent increase in May.
Core (underlying) inflation, which excludes selected products with volatile prices, rose from 6.2 percent in April to 6.4 percent in May and 7.0 percent in June. Although well below the 19.3 percent recorded in June 2025, this increase showed that underlying price pressures persisted despite the decline in headline inflation.
Food inflation increased to 10.1 percent in June from 9.5 percent in May, but remained markedly below the 37.5 percent recorded in June 2025. Food prices therefore continued to rise compared with a year earlier, although at a considerably slower rate.
Energy, Fuel and Utilities inflation eased to 11.1 percent in June from 14.2 percent in May. However, it remained above the 6.3 percent recorded in June 2025, indicating stronger annual price pressures in this category than a year earlier.
Inflation varied across the Partner States covered by the EAC-HCPI. In June, annual headline inflation stood at 13.0 percent in both Rwanda and South Sudan, 8.0 percent in Burundi, 6.5 percent in Kenya, 4.0 percent in Tanzania and 3.7 percent in Uganda. South Sudan’s rate fell from 23.1 percent in May, while Rwanda’s remained unchanged at 13.0 percent.
For the 2025/26 fiscal year, regional annual average headline inflation declined to 14.2 percent from 23.0 percent in 2024/25. The Bulletin attributes this decline to lower inflation in South Sudan and Burundi, where annual average rates fell from 179.4 percent to 43.2 percent and from 33.3 percent to 18.0 percent, respectively.
Monetary Developments and Credit Growth
The EAC Quarterly Statistics Bulletin notes that the interest rate movements varied across Partner States in the second quarter of 2026. Compared with the first quarter, Tanzania recorded the largest decline in the 91-day Treasury bill rate, falling by 60 basis points to 3.6 percent, while Kenya recorded the largest increase, rising by 120 basis points to 8.7 percent. Uganda registered the highest rate among the reporting Partner States, at 10.2 percent.
Lending rates increased in Tanzania, Burundi and Rwanda, with Rwanda recording the largest rise of 30 basis points to 14.4 percent. Rates declined in Kenya, Uganda and South Sudan. Despite falling from 18.9 percent to 16.9 percent, Uganda’s lending rate remained the highest among the reporting Partner States.
Deposit rates rose in Tanzania, Burundi and Rwanda, declined in Kenya and Uganda, and remained unchanged in South Sudan. The gap between lending and deposit rates also varied considerably: South Sudan recorded the widest interest rate spread at 15.6 percentage points, while Rwanda had the narrowest at 4.3 percentage points.
Credit expanded across key economic sectors, although the pace of growth differed. Lending to wholesale and retail trade increased by 29.1 percent year-on-year, agriculture by 25.6 percent and construction by 22.9 percent. Real estate lending grew by 6.2 percent, while manufacturing recorded a modest increase of 0.9 percent. The household sector accounted for the largest amount of outstanding loans, at USD 17.6 billion, followed by wholesale and retail trade at USD 11.6 billion.
Broad money supply (M3) grew by 15.3 percent year-on-year to USD 107.7 billion, supported mainly by growth in credit to the private sector, which rose by 15.0 percent to USD 75.9 billion. Net foreign assets increased by 19.0 percent to USD 25.4 billion.
Public-sector credit showed different trends. Net credit to central government increased by 7.5 percent year-on-year to USD 37.5 billion, while net credit to public non-financial corporations declined by 3.1 percent to USD 0.65 billion.
Distributed by APO Group on behalf of East African Community (EAC).
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