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Survey pins hope on GST revenue to rein in fiscal deficit

New Delhi, Jan 31 (SocialNews.XYZ) The Economic Survey on Friday pinned its hope on uptick in growth of cumulative GST collections in October 2019 and November-December to contain fiscal deficit at the budgeted 3.3 per cent for FY2020.

In 2019-20, Centre's fiscal deficit was budgeted at Rs 7.04 lakh crore (3.3 per cent of GDP), as compared to Rs 6.49 lakh crore (3.4 per cent of GDP) in 2018-19.

Good and Services Tax (GST) collections, the biggest component of indirect taxes, grew by 4.1 per cent for the Centre during April-November 2019. However, the uptick in growth of cumulative GST collections for the Centre started in October 2019 and has sustained its momentum in November-December 2019 as well, the survey pointed out.

Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman tabled the Economic Survey 2019-20 in Parliament on Friday. The Survey also referred to an uptick in GDP growth in the second half of 2019-20. The government says that based on first Advance Estimates, India's GDP growth for 2019-20 would be recorded at 5 per cent.

This suggests an uptick in GDP growth in second half of 2019-20. The survey states that the deceleration in GDP growth can be understood within the framework of a slowing cycle of growth. The financial sector has acted as a drag on the real sector.

The Survey said that the uptick in second half of 2019-20 would be mainly due to 10 positive factors like picking up of NIFTY for the first time this year, an upbeat secondary market, higher FDI flows, build-up of demand pressure, positive outlook for rural consumption, rebound of industrial activity, steady improvement in manufacturing, growth in merchandise exports, higher build-up of foreign exchange reserves and positive growth rate of GST revenue collection.

The Survey said on a net assessment of both the downside/upside risks, India's GDP growth is expected to grow in the range of 6.0 to 6.5 per cent in 2020-21 and it asks the government to use its strong mandate to deliver expeditiously on reforms, which will enable the economy to strongly rebound in 2020-21.

Pointing out that the year 2019 was a difficult year for the global economy with world output estimated to grow at its slowest pace of 2.9 per cent since the global financial crisis of 2009, declining from a subdued 3.6 per cent in 2018 and 3.8 per cent in 2017.

Uncertainties, although declining, are still elevated due to protectionist tendencies of China and US and rising US-Iran geo-political tensions. Amidst a weak environment for global manufacturing, trade and demand, the Indian economy slowed down with GDP growth moderating to 4.8 per cent in first half of 2019-20, lower than 6.2 per cent in second half of 2018-19.

A sharp decline in real fixed investment induced by a sluggish growth of real consumption has weighed down GDP growth from second half of 2018-19 to first half of 2019-20.

Source: IANS

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